ECONOMIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE IN CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW: ADAPTATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX AND BEHAVIORAL ASYMMETRY IN CONDITIONS OF POST-WAR RECOVERY

Abstract

Introduction. This article analyzes the state of Ukraine's economic security amid full-scale war. The conditions of a prolonged military conflict necessitate a conceptual revision of the economic security paradigm, shifting from linear stabilization models to adaptive management strategies. The agro-industrial complex (AIC) has acquired the status of a systemic driver of macroeconomic resilience, capable of absorbing systemic logistical, climatic, and financial risks and threats. The transformation of the agricultural sector's production structure cannot be explained exclusively by neoclassical models of rational choice. Under extreme macroeconomic uncertainty, behavioral decision-making patterns are activated, particularly the effects of hyperbolic time discounting and cognitive loss aversion. Agricultural producers demonstrate a propensity to maximize short-term liquidity, favoring monocultures with a rapid operating cycle, even amidst price volatility in global markets.

Purpose. The study aims to investigate the theoretical and methodological foundations and practical aspects of ensuring Ukraine's economic security under martial law. It analyzes the processes of transformation and structural adaptation of the agro-industrial complex as the basis of food security, while substantiating the strategic directions of state policy regarding post-war recovery, European integration, and the implementation of innovative sustainable development models.

Materials and methods. The empirical basis of the research comprises macroeconomic statistics and industry analytical reports for 2022–2025. The study employs methods of systems analysis (to identify macroeconomic imbalances), statistical grouping and comparison (to assess financial losses and the transformation of crop areas), spatial analysis (to record the regional relocation of production), and the abstract-logical method to formalize the conclusions.

Results. The paradigm transformation of the mechanisms for ensuring the state's economic resilience was investigated, focusing on the agro-industrial complex as a systemic factor of the national economy. The transformation of the agricultural sector's production structure was analyzed, emphasizing the behavioral asymmetry of wartime. Direct and indirect losses of the agricultural sector were detailed, and infrastructure recovery needs were assessed. The study identified key trends in the structural adaptation of production, shifts in regional specialization, the deepening of agricultural raw material processing, and the diversification of logistics routes. Particular attention was given to the functioning of the land market, investment and credit provision, energy decentralization, and the implementation of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) criteria. Strategic imperatives for state policy to strengthen economic security through technological modernization, value chain development, and European integration were substantiated.

Discussion. Future scientific research should focus on modeling scenarios for the integration of the Ukrainian agricultural sector into the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), accounting for protectionist risks. Additionally, attention should be directed toward developing institutional mechanisms for financing climate adaptation through voluntary carbon markets.