MODELING LAGGED COST EFFECTS IN THE CONTEXT OF MANAGING THE RESILIENCE OF E-COMMERCE ENTERPRISES

Abstract

Introduction. The article examines lagged cost effects in the context of managing the resilience of e-commerce enterprises. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to take into account the temporal structure of the impact of costs on financial performance, since certain categories of costs may generate not only current but also delayed economic effects. In the proposed model, the resilience of an e-commerce enterprise is interpreted as a dynamic characteristic formed under the influence of investment decisions with different time delays in their implementation.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to identify the temporal structure of the impact of the main cost categories on financial performance and the formation of enterprise resilience. The necessity of taking time lags into account as an element in the transformation of investments into financial results is theoretically substantiated.

Materials and methods. The empirical basis of the study consists of quarterly financial reporting data of Zalando SE for 2019–2024. For the assessment, a lagged multiple regression model in logarithmic specification was used, which made it possible to determine the relative sensitivity of revenue to changes in individual cost categories. The model includes marketing and logistics costs, personnel costs, and capitalized software development costs.

Results. Based on the application of the model to Zalando SE data, the heterogeneity of temporal cost effects was identified, and three profiles of their impact were distinguished: immediate, short-term, and long-term. Within the studied case, logistics costs form the most complete temporal impact profile, marketing costs form a combined profile, personnel costs have a predominantly immediate profile, while technological investments are characterized by a delayed short-term effect. The obtained results confirm the analytical applicability of the proposed approach for the temporal decomposition of the impact of costs on the financial performance of an e-commerce enterprise.

Perspectives. Further research should be aimed at expanding the empirical base, conducting a comparative analysis of e-commerce enterprises, accounting for seasonality, and testing nonlinear or mediated effects.