DETERMINISTIC TRANSITION TO AN INTEGRATED MODEL: EU – UKRAINE IN A POLYCRISIS REALITY

Abstract

Introduction. In today's polycrisis reality, where economic, climatic, social, and geopolitical shocks have become the norm, traditional approaches to assessing economic stability based on GDP and financial reporting are proving to be scientifically outdated and practically dangerous. This creates an urgent need for a deterministic transition – a systemic transition from fragmented analysis of individual determinants of sustainable development to the construction of an integrated model of economic stability that takes into account the mutual reinforcement of five basic assessment blocks: natural-ecological, social-human, institutional-political, economic-technological, and geopolitical-foreign economic.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to provide theoretical and methodological justification and practical demonstration of the deterministic transition as the basis for economic stability in EU member states and Ukraine. In particular, the study aims to critically rethink the limitations of traditional approaches; systematize advanced international frameworks (Resilience Compass, OECD Well-being Framework, IWI, SPI); develop an adapted model for Ukraine.

Materials and methods. The study is based on an analysis of scientific articles; official EU documents; reports by the OECD, UNEP, the World Bank, UNDP Ukraine, as well as national strategies. A set of methods was applied: systematic analysis (to build an integrated model), comparative analysis (comparison of the EU and Ukraine), critical analysis (rethinking GDP), content analysis (systematization of international frameworks), and modeling (development of an adapted model for Ukraine).

Results. The study showed that EU member states (Denmark, Estonia, Finland) are successfully implementing an integrated model, where synergy between the five methods ensures high resilience. In contrast, Ukraine remains at the stage of fragmented initiatives, which creates a deep gap with European standards. An adapted model of integrated economic resilience for Ukraine has been proposed, compatible with Resilience Compass, SEEA, Rule of Law Mechanism, and specific mechanisms for its implementation: linking Ukraine Facility tranches to the achievement of goals using five methods, using TSI to develop methodologies, and integrating multidimensional KPIs into the National Recovery Plan.

Prospects. The results of the study are of high theoretical and practical value for the formation of a new paradigm of economic policy, where success is measured not by profit, but by quality of life, intergenerational justice, and the capacity for transformation. Further research could focus on developing monitoring tools (the Ukrainian Resilience Compass), empirically validating the model at the regional level, and analyzing the impact of the determinative transition on the pace of European integration.