MODELING OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ENERGY ISLANDS UNDER MARTIAL LAW

Abstract

Introduction. Ukraine's energy system under martial law has faced unprecedented challenges related to the destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of energy supply stability, increased risks associated with centralized generation, and the need for rapid recovery of economic processes. The military aggression has necessitated a rethinking of approaches to organizing the energy supply of territories, bringing to the fore the issue of forming local energy systems capable of ensuring the autonomy, resilience, and continuity of socio-economic facilities.

One of the promising directions for increasing energy resilience is the development of the energy islands concept — localized energy complexes that operate based on a combination of distributed generation, renewable energy sources, storage systems, and intelligent energy flow management. Under conditions of military risk, such systems acquire not only technical but also strategic significance, as they contribute to ensuring the energy security of territorial communities, supporting production activities, and preserving economic activity.

At the same time, the development of energy islands requires comprehensive economic justification, since their creation involves significant investment costs, the need for optimal selection of technological solutions, assessment of potential economic effects, and consideration of uncertainty factors characteristic of the martial law period. Traditional approaches to forecasting and planning energy development are losing their effectiveness due to the instability of the market environment, changes in the structure of energy demand, and a high level of risk.

In this context, the application of economic and mathematical modeling methods to determine the optimal parameters for the development of energy islands is becoming particularly relevant. Modeling makes it possible to assess the interrelation between energy, economic, and security factors, form development scenarios, and identify the most effective mechanisms for ensuring the resilience of local energy systems.

The issue of the economic development of energy islands under martial law lies at the intersection of research on energy security, regional economics, infrastructure systems management, and sustainable development. It is of particular importance for Ukraine, where economic recovery requires the implementation of decentralized energy supply models and the formation of a new architecture for the energy system.

The aim of the article is to formalize the process of modeling the economic development of energy islands under martial law.

Materials and Methods. The materials of the study were legal and regulatory acts in the field of Ukraine's energy sector. The information base of the study consisted of statistical data on electricity consumption, as well as the works of domestic and foreign authors devoted to modeling energy development and formalizing models of socio-ecological-economic responsibility under martial law.

The following scientific methods were used in the course of the study: generalization — to clarify the theoretical foundations of modeling the economic development of energy islands and to identify additional risk factors specific to martial law conditions; analysis and synthesis — to identify the interrelation between indicators of energy security, investment attractiveness, and the socio-economic effect of energy islands' functioning; the systems approach — to consider an energy island as a holistic complementary system functioning under the influence of investment, technological, security, and socio-economic factors; economic and mathematical modeling — to formalize the target function of an energy island's economic development and the dynamic model for forecasting electricity consumption; the calculation-and-analytical method — to determine the cost structure and the internal rate of return using the example of projects in the city of Zhytomyr; scenario modeling — to assess the economic feasibility of projects according to alternative trajectories of security situation development; logical generalization of results - to formulate conclusions and practical recommendations.

Results. A formalized model of the complementary economic development of an energy island has been proposed in the form of a target function that takes into account the volume of investment, the level of renewable energy sources utilization, the energy security indicator, the socio-economic effect, the technological infrastructure, and the level of military and technogenic risks. A dynamic model for forecasting electricity consumption has been formed, taking into account coefficients of decline during wartime and growth during recovery.

Using the city of Zhytomyr as an example, eventual calculations of the capital and operating expenditure structure were performed for energy island projects with capacities of 500 kW and 1 MW. A VoLL-oriented approach to assessing economic efficiency, which takes into account the value of lost load, has been substantiated. Indicators of net present value and the internal rate of return were calculated, confirming the high investment attractiveness of such projects and a reduction in the payback period from several years to several months.

A scenario modeling method was applied across three alternative trajectories of security situation development, which proved the resilience of the project's positive economic effect regardless of the duration of the military conflict. The architecture of state and international financing of organized energy islands was investigated, and spatial differences in the implementation of similar projects were identified using the examples of the Zhytomyr and Poltava regions.

The obtained results can be applied to substantiate investment decisions regarding the establishment of energy islands at the level of enterprises, local self-government bodies, and the state under conditions of martial law and the post-war recovery of Ukraine's energy system.

Prospects for further research lie in expanding the empirical base to other regions of Ukraine in order to form a unified spatial methodology for prioritizing projects within the framework of the complementary economic development model of energy islands.