TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINE’S YOUTH LABOUR MARKET UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF FULL-SCALE WAR: TRENDS IN 2021–2025

Abstract

Introduction. The article analyses the features and patterns of the transformation of Ukraine’s youth labour market under the conditions of the full-scale war in 2021–2025. Russia’s military aggression, combined with the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has caused profound demographic, migration and macroeconomic changes that have significantly transformed the conditions shaping labour supply and demand, particularly for young people. Under these conditions, the youth labour market is emerging as a highly vulnerable segment, which requires comprehensive analysis for the development of effective public employment policy.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to identify the features and key patterns of the transformation of Ukraine’s youth labour market under the impact of the full-scale war and to substantiate the main challenges of its development in the current conditions.

Materials and Methods. The methodological basis of the study includes statistical, comparative, structural and dynamic analysis based on official statistical data from Ukrainian and international organisations. The study analyses changes in the size of the youth population, employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, informal employment and the share of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET). The applied methods made it possible to assess the impact of demographic losses, forced displacement, reduced economic activity and structural shifts in labour demand on the position of young people in the labour market.

Results. The study identifies regional and sectoral imbalances in employment and labour demand. It is established that the war has significantly worsened entry conditions for young people in the labour market: employment has declined, competition for vacancies has intensified, and the greatest losses are observed in regions affected by hostilities and in sectors that traditionally absorb young workers. The article shows that labour demand has shifted towards blue-collar, technical and service occupations, while a considerable share of young people remains oriented towards office-based, creative and remote employment, which leads to deepening structural imbalances. It is proven that the decline in registered unemployment does not reflect a real improvement in the situation, as it is accompanied by a reduction in the labour force, intensified migration processes, mobilisation and the expansion of informal employment. The study substantiates the need to implement post-war policies aimed at restoring labour market statistics, supporting NEET youth, developing vocational and dual education, promoting formal employment and aligning the education system with labour market needs.

Discussion. Prospects for further research include an in-depth study of mechanisms for overcoming structural imbalances in the youth labour market, the development of instruments for integrating young people into formal employment, and the formation of effective post-war employment policy taking into account regional and sectoral specificities.