FORMATION OF MACROECONOMIC TRENDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UKRAINE’S DEBT POLICY

Abstract

Introduction. In the context of a significant shortage of resources at the state's disposal, acute imbalances in public finances, and the need to financially support the functioning of the national security and defense sector, the state's debt policy stands out as one of the key components of Ukraine's economic development. However, the state's debt policy in domestic realities is characterized by ambiguity in its consequences and creates several "bifurcation points" for the entire national economy. It is evident that Ukraine currently cannot do without domestic and external borrowing; nevertheless, debt risks compel a critical examination of these issues. Substantial borrowing volumes exert additional negative pressure on the real sector of the economy, on price dynamics, and on macroeconomic trends in general. The transformation of debt policy in Ukraine is possible exclusively on the basis of reliable assessments of the relationships between its key parameters and the main macroeconomic indicators, which determines the relevance of this study.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to assess the effects of the state's debt policy in the context of shaping macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and to determine their significance from the standpoint of maintaining macro-financial stability. Based on the findings, to substantiate the directions for reforming Ukraine's debt policy.

Materials and Methods. The information base of the study comprises materials from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine regarding the quantitative parameters of Ukraine's public debt, as well as data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine characterizing the main parameters of the country's macroeconomic development.
The following scientific methods were employed in the research process: grouping (to systematize indicators of the level and structure of public debt, as well as indicators characterizing macroeconomic dynamics); regression analysis (to assess statistical relationships between the dynamics of Ukraine's public debt and macroeconomic trends); and the method of logical generalization of results (formulation of conclusions).

Results. It has been demonstrated that Ukraine is characterized by a sustained decline in economic growth rates during crisis phases; however, the absence of statistical significance is attributable to the fact that structural shocks were offset by large-scale international financial support, debt restructuring, and an increase in external grants. It is argued that the devaluation dynamics of the hryvnia during 2012–2025 have a distinctly debt-driven and exchange-rate nature. The most influential factor is the share of public debt denominated in foreign currency, which proved to be statistically significant. An increase in the foreign currency component of public debt creates substantial devaluation pressure, weakening the resilience of the foreign exchange market to external shocks. It has been established that growth in the share of foreign currency debt increases Ukraine's external vulnerability, as it raises the demand for foreign currency to service the debt, worsens the trade balance, and deepens dependence on external financing. The cost of public borrowing in Ukraine during 2012–2025 was determined primarily by monetary conditions and the regime characteristics of public debt financing, rather than by classical parameters of debt sustainability.

Prospects. Further scientific research should focus on examining the effectiveness of the measures proposed in the article: a targeted reduction in the foreign currency share of public debt; extension of maturities and smoothing of the repayment schedule; development of the domestic investment base; and close integration of debt and monetary policy.