BARRIERS TO REDUCING THE «ENERGY EFFICIENCY GAP» FOR UKRAINIAN CONFECTIONERY INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES IN 2022–2025

Abstract

Introduction. Russia's full-scale armed invasion of 2022 fundamentally altered operating conditions for Ukrainian confectionery enterprises. The classical «energy efficiency gap» (EEG) theory — developed by Jaffe & Stavins (1994), Sorrell et al. (2004), and IEA (2007) under peacetime assumptions — proved unable to explain the new configuration of barriers to energy-efficiency investment generated by armed conflict. According to the World Bank Ukraine Enterprise Survey (2024), the share of Ukrainian industrial enterprises implementing EE measures fell from 27.4% (2019–2020) to 8.3% (2022–2023).

Aim. To develop an author's classification and ranking of EEG barriers for Ukrainian confectionery enterprises in 2022–2025, identifying fundamentally new barriers absent from classical EEG theory, and to construct a ranking system based on the Integral Priority Index (IPI).

Materials and methods. The study draws on: (1) an original field survey of 14 confectionery and food-industry enterprises of varying scale (small — 3, medium — 8, large — 3) across different regions (safe, frontline, de-occupied) in 2023–2024; (2) the Delphi method involving 8 independent industry experts; (3) analysis of World Bank Ukraine Enterprise Survey (2024), EBRD Energy Efficiency Ukraine Report (2023), and USAID/DOBRE (2023) reports; (4) systematisation of classical approaches by Sorrell et al. (2004) and Thollander & Ottosson (2010). Barrier weights were determined by pairwise comparison.

Results. Twelve barrier groups were identified, three of which are fundamentally new to scientific discourse: military-security (19.7%), energy system (16.2%), and personnel-mobilization (6.8%). The combined weight of the new barriers reaches 59.3% of EEG explanatory power — nearly twice the comparable figure for the peaceful EU environment (38–42%). The financial-investment barrier remains critical at 23.4%. The IPI-based ranking system (IPI = I × F × (1 + D/5)) revealed an extreme priority for the military-security barrier (IPI = 25.0) and critical priorities for the financial (20.0) and energy-system (18.5) barriers. Comparative analysis confirmed that no classical EEG theory accounts for barriers generated by active armed conflict.

Perspectives. Further research should focus on adapting the classification to adjacent food-industry sectors, developing specific state-support mechanisms for overcoming critical barriers within Ukraine's post-war recovery programmes, and formalising a «war-conflict module» as an independent theoretical extension of the classical EEG framework.