ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AND STRATEGIC FORESIGHT OF THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL TURBULENCE

Abstract

Introduction. The article investigates the problems and strategic prospects for developing Ukraine's export potential under conditions of global turbulence and martial law. Traditional linear planning methods are inadequate for highly uncertain environments, necessitating a transition to adaptive management and strategic foresight. The national economy is constrained by a commodity trap and a severe personnel shortage, which acts as a major factor in production degradation.

Purpose. The study aims to analyze the national economy's export potential through the methodology of strategic foresight and adaptive management, identify key systemic barriers (particularly personnel and infrastructural), and substantiate directions for the high-tech transformation of foreign trade, primarily through innovative models of integrating domestic defense technologies (defense-tech) into global markets.

Materials and methods. The research employs strategic foresight, the concept of adaptive management, and causal layered analysis (CLA) to deconstruct complex economic problems across four interconnected levels. The empirical basis includes macroeconomic statistics and industry analytical reports from the NBU, World Bank, IMF, and UNDP spanning 2024–2027.

Results. Systemic barriers to export recovery were identified, highlighting the critical personnel shortage as a root attractor that multiplies logistical and infrastructural challenges. The study substantiated the imperative to shift from an extensive raw-material model to a high value-added, innovation-based economy aligned with the National Export Strategy until 2030. Special emphasis was placed on the "Build with Ukraine" initiative, which promotes adaptive models of technological cooperation and joint defense-tech production in partner countries. The effectiveness of proactive institutional governance, currency deregulation, and the establishment of a single coordination center was proven.

Discussion. Future scientific research should focus on scaling the "Build with Ukraine" initiative beyond the military sector to include dual-use and high-tech civilian exports. Additionally, attention should be directed toward establishing permanent foresight units within governmental structures for continuous horizon scanning of global markets.