ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FACTORS IN THE REGIONS OF UKRAINE

Abstract

Introduction. In the macroeconomic dimension, household behavior directly affects the dynamics of economic development, since consumer spending accounts for a significant share of final GDP use. In many applied studies, the main attention is paid to the impact of household income on the level of their spending. However, the use of only one-dimensional dependencies does not allow for a complete description of the mechanism of spending formation, since they do not take into account a set of other factors - in particular, family size and the level of urbanization. In view of this, there is a need for applied econometric methods.

Purpose. Econometric assessment of the impact of major socio-economic factors on the level of aggregate household consumer spending.

Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data on regional aggregate household consumption expenditures for 2021 and scientific works of domestic and foreign authors on the analysis of consumer behavior. The work used methods of theoretical generalization, statistical analysis to assess the relationships between indicators, and econometric modeling to build regression models.

Results. Based on empirical data, a regression model for estimating aggregate household expenditures was constructed and statistically validated. The results showed the statistical insignificance of demographic and territorial factors (average equivalent household size and share of urban households) and confirmed the determining influence of total income. In the simplified model, the marginal propensity to consume was estimated to be 0,53.

The scientific novelty lies in the refinement of the quantitative assessment of the impact of income, demographic and territorial characteristics on household consumption expenditures at the regional level of Ukraine according to 2021 data.

Discussion. Further research should be directed at analyzing changes in the structure of consumer spending of Ukrainian households during the war period and post-war recovery, as well as using data from several years to assess the dynamics of consumer behavior of the population.