FORECASTING HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE: A SCENARIO APPROACH

Abstract

Introduction. The current stage of socio-economic development is characterized by significant structural changes in the world economic system under the influence of the fourth industrial revolution. The widespread introduction of new technologies into all social spheres radically changes the conditions and results of economic activity, modifies the interrelations between economic entities, and transforms the essence of human-nature interaction. However, such technological advances do not reduce the role and importance of humans in socio-economic development. On the contrary, in modern conditions, it is the development of human capital that is one of the key prerequisites for the introduction of innovative technologies of the fourth industrial revolution and ensuring their effective use. As practice shows, it is high-quality human capital that can ensure the competitiveness of both individual enterprises and the national economy as a whole. Therefore, there is a need for scientific developments aimed at assessing the level of human capital and predicting trends in its development.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop an integrated index of human capital and forecast its development based on a scenario approach.

Materials and methods. The materials of the study are: 1) reports of international organizations on global indices of human development, human capital and innovation; 2) works of domestic and foreign authors investigating the problems of human capital.

In the process of conducting the study, the following scientific methods were used: structural analysis (when forming an integrated human capital index), analysis and synthesis (when selecting indicators of this index); scenario analysis (when predicting options for the development of the integrated human capital index); theoretical generalization (when substantiating the results of the forecast).

Results. The article proposes to use the integrated index to assess the level of human capital development. Its structure and selection of indicators are justified. The dynamics of the integrated human capital index for Ukraine are calculated and the negative trend of deterioration of the state of national human capital is emphasized. The basic, innovative and intensive scenarios are substantiated as alternative options for the development of human capital in Ukraine. It is emphasized that the key condition for the implementation of innovative and intensive scenarios is a significant intensification of research and development activities.

Discussion. In further scientific research, it is necessary to substantiate the forms of reforming and developing national human capital.