ECONOMIC–MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MANAGEMENT MECHANISMS FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Introduction. The article addresses the relevant problem of evaluating the effectiveness of management mechanisms for ensuring sustainable development of Ukrainian cities in the context of decentralization and European integration processes. In the context of local government reform and the transfer of significant powers and resources to the local level, there is a growing need for scientifically grounded tools to measure the performance of public authorities in ensuring balanced socioeconomic and environmental development of territories. Purpose. The research aims to develop a multifactorial economic-mathematical model for integral assessment of the effectiveness of management mechanisms for sustainable urban development based on a system of indicators of economic, environmental, social, and institutional-managerial sustainability, as well as to formulate methodological recommendations for its practical application by local self-government bodies for substantiating management decisions and monitoring the effectiveness of sustainable development policy. Materials and Methods. The study employed methods of system analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, analytic hierarchy process for determining weighting coefficients, indicator normalization methods, and correlation-regression analysis. The information base consisted of data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, financial reports of local self-government bodies, and strategic development documents of Ukrainian cities for the period 2020–2024. Results. An author’s economic-mathematical model for calculating the integral index of sustainable urban development management effectiveness (ІЕСРМ) has been developed, which includes four blocks of indicators with defined weighting coefficients: economic (0.30), environmental (0.25), social (0.25), and institutional-managerial (0.20). A methodology for normalizing indicators based on the min-max approach and determining weighting coefficients using the analytic hierarchy process has been proposed. The model was tested on the example of five Ukrainian cities of different sizes (Dnipro, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Melitopol), which confirmed its validity and practical applicability. A strong correlation (r=0.82) was established between the integral index and quality of life indicators. A matrix of management decisions has been developed for cities with different levels of effectiveness (high — ІЕСРМ>0.7; medium — 0.4<ІЕСРМ<0.7; low — ІЕСРМ<0.4), which defines priority directions for improving the public administration system. The proposed model enables comparative analysis of management mechanism effectiveness between cities, identification of problem areas, and substantiation of target indicators for local development strategies. Discussion. Further research should focus on expanding the indicator system taking into account digitalization of public services, adapting the model for evaluating amalgamated territorial communities of different types (urban, settlement, rural), developing software for automation of calculations and visualization of results, as well as studying cause-and-effect relationships between individual model indicators to formulate recommendations on optimal management interventions.